Carat Predicts Bright 2014 and Positive Growth of 5.0% in 2015
Published on:
Carat Predicts Bright 2014 and Positive Growth of 5.0% in 2015
Digital is the only media predicted to increase market share in 2014
Carat, the leading global media network, today publishes its first forecast for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2015, combined with its latest forecasts for 2014 and actual figures for 2013.
Based on data received from 59 markets across Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat’s latest global advertising expenditure forecast show global advertising revenues accelerating by +4.8% in 2014 to US$551 billion[i]. This is an upward revision on the +4.5% forecast in the previous Carat Advertising Spend report issued in September 2013 and a notable increase in pace on the actual +3.3% growth in 2013. Carat predicts that global advertising expenditure in 2015 will continue on an upward trend, with +5.0% year-on-year growth.
From a regional perspective, an increase in advertising expenditure is forecast across all regions, including Western Europe which has suffered two years of negative decline. Carat’s data highlights that the era of double digit decline in some parts of Western Europe may now be over, with markets including Italy, declining by -10.3% in 2013, transforming into a positive growth market by 2015.
By media, Digital spend continues to increase at a rapid global growth rate of +15.5% in 2014, outperforming all other media and the only media to extend its market share based on 2014 and 2015 predictions. In the UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, Digital media is already the number one media type.
| Year on year % growth at current prices | |||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| GLOBAL | 3.3 (3.0) | 4.8 (4.5) | 5.0 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 3.5 (3.1) | 4.3 (3.0) | 4.5 |
| USA | 3.5 (3.1) | 4.3 (3.0) | 4.6 |
| CANADA | 3.5 (3.4) | 3.8 (3.3) | 4.1 |
| WESTERN EUROPE | -1.7 (-2.3) | 1.8 (1.4) | 2.1 |
| UK | 3.8 (3.6) | 5.0 (5.0) | 4.5 |
| GERMANY | -1.3 (-1.0) | 1.0 (0.0) | 1.5 |
| FRANCE | -3.0 (-3.3) | 0.8 (0.8) | 1.0 |
| ITALY | -10.3 (-11.7) | -1.3 (-1.3) | 1.4 |
| SPAIN | -8.5 (-9.7) | 2.3 (1.1) | 3.4 |
| C&EE | 4.8 (5.9) | 5.0 (7.4) | 5.2 |
| RUSSIA | 9.9 (11.2) | 8.0 (11.0) | 7.0 |
| ASIA PACIFIC | 5.0 (4.7) | 5.6 (5.2) | 5.9 |
| AUSTRALIA | 0.8 (0.0) | 2.1 (1.0) | 1.9 |
| CHINA | 7.4 (6.9) | 8.0 (7.9) | 8.3 |
| INDIA | 8.1 (7.0) | 8.7 (7.6) | 9.8 |
| JAPAN | 1.4 (1.3) | 1.7 (1.0) | 1.7 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 9.9 (9.0) | 12.8 (14.5) | 12.9 |
| BRAZIL | 7.1 (4.6) | 10.0 (12.3) | 8.1 |
| Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Sep 2013 |
Commenting on the Carat Advertising Expenditure forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, said:
“Carat’s predictions echo the increasingly positive economic sentiment we are hearing from our industry-leading clients and partners. We are seeing overall economic growth but with significant regional and local variations. With 2014 looking brighter than we previously anticipated, and further momentum gathering in 2015, the outlook for advertising expenditure is healthy for most.
“The real story of the advertising market is the dynamics in digital media. Digital growth accounts for three times total growth and the seismic trends within digital are causing a convergent media revolution. Social, mobile and video will all grow by at least 50% in 2014 through developments in powerful technology, access to information and increasing consumer trust. Whilst the prolific sporting events including the Winter Olympics in Sochi and the World Cup in Brazil will continue to drive TV advertising spend in 2014, the gold medal winners will ultimately be the digital world.”
Contacts:
Helen Morris Marketing Manager, Carat +44 (0)7917 646 585
Kirsten Doddy Global Head of Corporate Communications +44 (0)7979 537 995
Louise Evans Global Director of Communications +44 (0) 7920 492 400
Notes to Editors
Digital: 'Digital Advertising' or 'Digital Media' or 'Digital' includes advertising spend from Search, Display, Online Video, Social Media and Mobile.
Methodology: Carat's advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data which is collated from around the Carat network and based on Carat's local market expertise. We use a bottom-up approach, with forecasts provided for 59 markets covering the Americas, EMEA, Asia Pacific and Rest of World by medium - Television, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, Cinema, Out-of-Home and Digital Media. The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted, in current prices and in local currency. For global and regional figures we convert the figures centrally into USD with the average exchange rate. The forecasts are produced bi-annually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following year.